October 2007

Phillies Future: Starters in the Farm

There is always talk about the lack of depth in the Phillies farm system. It was interesting that during the 2007 post season Joe Buck and Tim McCarver kept touting how impressive it was that the Red Sox have 8 players that were home grown. The Phillies had 12 homegrown players in 2007. The farm system certainly has come through over the last decade developing solid major league players that include Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Brett Myers, Pat Burrell, and wish we could forget Scott Rolen.

The next thing brought up is the lack of pitching that is developed by the team. We already mentioned Brett Myers but then there is Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, and Carlos Silva. But what is left in the cupboard in the way of starting pitching? The top answers are Joshua Outman, J.A. Happ, and Carlos Carrasco. Everyone wants to include Joe Savory in this list, but it will be a little time before we see what kind of talent he truly has at the professional level.

Josh Outman, a perfect name for a pitcher, is a left hander that throws in the low 90′s and has an unfair change up, curve ball, and slider. He needs more time to mature, but is making a name for himself in the Arizona Fall league. The 23 year old posted a 12-7 record and a 2.99 ERA combined at single and double A last season. Outman is a legitimate major league prospect and could make an impact on the big league team in 2008. Depending on how he pitches in Spring Training, he will either begin the year in Reading or triple A.

J.A. Happ started 24 games for triple A Ottawa in 2007. He was 4-6 with a 5.02 ERA but is expected to mature into a solid pitcher at this level in 2008. The third round pick of 2004 is now 25 and will need to return to his 2006 form if he wants to have a chance to make it to the major league level.

Carlos Carrasco, a 20 year old right hander, pitched in Clearwater and Reading and was 12-6 with a 3.86 ERA. Carlos could be ready to see major league action in 2009 and will spend 2008 with either Reading or in triple A if not both.

There is no surprise that the Phillies will need to look outside of the organization for pitching help in 2008 but one or more of these prospects could help fill out the rotation in 2009 or sooner if the need arises.

Romero and Alfonseca File for Free Agency

Two more names were added to the free agent list as JC Romero and Antonio Alfonseca filed today. The team has been on record stating they hope to retain both relievers. On the free market, Romero is likely to warrant a hefty paycheck after posting great number with the Phillies. His lack of control and consistency year to year may make him a little more affordable but with the scarcity of left handed pitching available he could be a hot commodity. Alfonseca showed that he can pitch a full season without getting injured however was tired at times and his lack of fitness hurt him down the stretch. He may price himself out of Philadelphia as he may get offered more money elsewhere than the Phillies perceive he is worth.

Romero was such a big part of the Phillies success down the stretch that the team really needs to pay to keep him. The fear in this however is the fact that the Phillies could pay him and he could have a 6.70 era like he did in 2006 with the Angels. Which ever way they go, there could be a lot of second guessing.

Alfonseca is less of a priority. He had times when he was great and other times when he frustrated the Philly faithful. He should only be considered a 6th or possibly 7th inning pitcher and if the price for him is not in line with this role, the team can do as well or better elsewhere.

The pair makes the list of Phillies free agents total six. Kyle Lohse, Rod Barajas, Tadahito Iguchi and Freddy Garcia are all expected to declare
by the November 8th deadline. Of the entire group Aaron Rowand and Romero are the only two the team really needs to retain to ensure they do not move backwards before moving forward.

Howard and Hamels Future

As there was last season, there will be plenty of discussion about Ryan Howard’s contract and long term future with the Phillies. Cole Hamels will be added to this discussion this off season as well. The facts are that the Phillies have exclusive rights to Howard through the 2011 season and Hamels through the 2012 season.

The Phillies are starting to discuss options with Howard which will probably start at the 6 year $85 million area that Chase Utley was just received. Realistically, a player with Howard’s talent will warrant more in the range of 8 or 9 seasons and $140 to $150 million.

It is too early to speculate on Hamels and one thing the team needs to be sure of is Cole’s health. Will he be able to stay healthy for 200 innings year in and year out?

Phightin’ Phils Phorum would like to hear your thoughts on this subject.

Organizational Meeting

The Phillies had a two day organizational meeting at Citizens Bank Park including major and minor league coaches, scouts, instructors, and athletic trainers. Every player on both the major and minor league rosters were discussed and the scouts and player development compared notes about recently signed players. They also reviewed their needs for 2008 and the potential free agents available.

As everyone who follows the Phillies surmised, they realized the number one need as pitching followed by third base and the outfield. No surprises here so the hope is that they are able to execute their plans.

Other items discussed were international baseball, the scouting grading system, the contract signing process including negotiations with draftees and the college scholarship program, and general business operations. The athletic trainers also met to discuss injuries and protocols. It would be interesting to learn if they figured out why so many of the teams pitchers were injured and why the organization has had so many pitchers need Tommy John surgery.

With the organizational meeting behind them, the staff can move forward with a productive off season for both the major league roster and the minor league player development.

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Free Agency Filing Begins

Aaron Rowand topped the list of Phillies filing for free agency. Jon Lieber, Jose Mesa and Abraham Nunez also filed on the first day. There are 10 eligible players for free agency and the Phillies have said they are parting ways with Freddie Garcia so he will not be returning.

Rowand is seeking a six year deal for $85 million while the Phillies are hoping he will settle for 3 years $33 million. Although the gap seems large, the Phillies appear committed to bringing him back. With his desire to return, it would not be surprising if the Phillies meet him in the middle and retain his services. Their are several big name center fielders on the market including Andruw Jones, Tori Hunter, and Mike Cameron which may keep another team from offering Rowand an offer he can not refuse and the Phillies can not or will not match.

Other players of interest that filed for free agency today include infielder Mark Loretta, starting pitcher Carlos Silva and closers Francisco
Cordero and Mariano Rivera. Loretta is of no interest to the Philles. Silva could be targeted to return to Philadelphia but hopefully the Phillies will look for someone that is more of an upgrade. Cordero and Rivera would be welcome upgrades for the back end of the bullpen with Rivera being the favorite. If this happens Brett Myers may be moved to the starting rotation which would fill two holes with one move.

Not mentioned above was Alex Rodriguez who opted out of his contract. He is not an option for the Phillies budget and probably would have no interest in Philadelphia even if the team was interested.

Stay tuned as more free agents will be filing. Each will be discussed in this blog.

Update: 10/31/07

Mike Cameron was suspended for 25 games in 2008 for testing positive for some sort of stimulant. This may effect the free agency market for center fielders and raise Aaron Rowand’s price. Let us hope that the Phillies and Rowand can come to an agreement quickly or the Phillies can execute a good back up plan.

The Outfield Predicament

No team in MLB can can tout a more potent offense at first base, second base, and shortstop like the Phillies can. With such an offensive advantage at these positions, it would only make sense that the team would also have a potent outfield. The outfield is usually where teams best hitters play. That was not the case in 2007 for the Phillies. Although Pat Burrell ended up with respectable numbers, he had times in the season where he was put on the bench and was very inconsistent. Aaron Rowand had a career year in center field and was the bright spot in the outfield. Right field was manned primarily by Shane Victorino who was serviceable but far from exceptional when you look at his numbers. Jason Werth and Michael Bourn were good off the bench.  But where is the big name outfielder that make pitchers tremble when they step up to the plate?

With Aaron Rowand’s future in Philadelphia in question due to free agency and with the possibility of Shane Victorino being traded for pitching help, what will the Phillies outfield look like in 2008? Assuming Burrell is not traded he will remain the starting left fielder. If Aaron Rowand and Shane Victorino leave, Michael Bourn could become the starting center fielder and hit in the lead off or second position. The tough thing about Bourn hitting second though is that he is left handed and would be followed by Utley and Howard, two more left handers. If this is the case, the Phillies need to sign or trade for a power hitting right handed right fielder. In order to bring potency back to the outfield, they will need a player that can hit at least .280, hit 30 homeruns, and drive in 100+ runs. This all sounds good on paper. Where do the Phillies find such a player? Should they take a look at Tori Hunter or Andrew Jones? Is it better for them to retain Aaron Rowand, even if he is overpriced and may warrant more years then the Phillies want to give him? What other options are out there? We will continue to look at this hot stove item through the next couple of months and discuss the best options for the team.

What the Phillies should not do is have two base stealing prototypical lead off hitters in their outfield like the scenario of Victorino and Bourn. If Jimmy Rollins is your lead off hitter, one additional player of this type is sufficient. The other outfielder then needs to be someone who can drive these guys home. This other player also needs to be right handed or a switch hitter to bring balance to this left handed line up. As everyone saw when they playoffs came, left handed pitching silenced this line up. Although pitching is on the top of the Phillies wish list, filling the outfield with potent hitters needs to be as much of a priority.

Victorino For a Starter?

The Phillies have said that they are likely to trade for a starting pitcher and that more than likely the player they deal will come from their 25 man roster. Narrow down the possible choices to trade. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins are untouchable. Wes Helms would not net the quality starter the team is looking for and Pat Burrell has a full no trade clause and a hefty contract. This leaves Carlos Ruiz, Jason Werth, Michael Bourn, and Shane Victorino. Of these four, Werth has been injury prone and Michael Bourn is unproven. The two may not be hot commodities. This leaves Ruiz and Victorino. Ruiz may be able to net a return in pitching but this would leave the Phillies depleted at catcher with unproven rookie Jason Jaramillo and Chris Coste. This leaves Shane Victorino as the most logical trade bait this off season.

Examine this further though. If Aaron Rowand does not return and Victorino is traded, the Phillies outfield would consist of Pat Burrell, Michael Bourn, and Jason Werth. Pat Gillick referred to the trio of Victorino, Bourn, and Werth as a "stretch" to play center and right fields due to their injury history and inexperience. The debate about a free agency signing in the outfield is for a separate discussion. But even so, should the Phillies trade Shane Victorino? His statistics in 2007 were .281 average with 12 home runs 37 stolen bases in 456 at bats. These are not all star stats but Shane brings more to the team than this. His energy, defense, and arm are all things to be considered when moving him out of the Phillies line up.

If he could net a top of the rotation starter a trade may make sense. With pitching as scarce as it is, however, what does Shane Victorino really net? A pitcher at the level of Kyle Lohse? If so, trading Victorino could be a big mistake leaving a hole and having a starting rotation not too different than the one they had in 2007. An upgrade is needed in the starting pitching. If a pitcher at the level of Kyle Lohse is proposed in a trade, hold onto Victorino and spend the money on the free agent market.

2008 Phillies Schedule Released

The Phillies 2008 tentative schedule has been released. The Phillies open at home against the Nationals with their opener on March 31 after a two game on deck series against the Toronto Blue Jays. After their opening series they head to Cincinnati to take on the Reds in a four game series. They end the season with six games at home with three against the Braves before the last series with the Nats. In inter league play they host the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels.

Other important series include April 8-10 at Shea stadium against the Mets, and nine games at home against them on April 18-20, July 4-7 and Aug. 26-27. They play the Rockies in Colorado at the end of April and host the team that eliminated them May 26 to 28. There is sure to be some booing that series!

The key for 2008 will again be the teams first two weeks in April. If they can play .500 ball during the first two weeks of the season and finish the season they way they have during Charlie Manuals first three years, they are sure to repeat as National League East Champions.

Phillies Bolster Scouting Staff

The Phillies announced the hiring of Chuck LaMar as a director of professional scouting today. LaMar has served in a a variety of roles for the Pirates, Reds, Braves, Devil Rays, and Nationals. In Tampa Bay, LaMar spent 1995 through 2005 as general manager and developed players like Carl Crawford, Aubrey Huff, and Rocco Baldelli. He will work with Gordon Lakey and provide input on trades to Pat Gillick.

It is interesting that the Phillies have added a new position and filled it with someone with GM experience. Could it be that the Phillies are adding an additional in house candidate to audition for the job when Pat Gillick retires? The team has said that Ruben Amaro and Mike Arbuckle are candidates for the job. But should the Phillies replace Gillick with an unproven in house candidate or a GM that never made it to the playoffs? The Phillies may be better served in 2009 by hiring another accomplished GM that can help them fill the gaps on their 25 man roster and help rebuild a depleted minor league system. The Phillies are a big market team. This is not a franchise that needs to home grow a GM. This is a franchise that needs to say we are committed to competing this year, next year, and every year. There is no room for error with such an important position.

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